A dynamic forecasting benchmark for LLMs
active 2024-09-30 → 2026-08-25 (UTC)
Activity over time
Daily event counts in the loaded window
Line chart, 695 days from 2024-09-30 to 2026-08-25. Pushes: 132 total, peak 5 in a day. Pull requests: 6 total, peak 4 in a day. Issues: 50 total, peak 4 in a day. Comments: 21 total, peak 2 in a day. Stars: 31 total, peak 2 in a day.
- Pushes
- Pull requests
- Issues
- Comments
- Stars
Stars, PRs, issues and forks are under-captured in the later part of this window. GH Archive progressively stopped capturing non-push events during 2026 — −95% or worse by the end of the window. Every series here except Pushes fades for that reason, so a decline above reflects the archive, not this repository. Pushes stay reliable throughout, so read them, and the contributor counts derived from them, as the real signal. Data health has the measurements.
Top contributors
Pushes, PRs, issues, reviews and comments — stars and forks excluded, so this is contribution rather than popularity
| Contributor | Contributions | Pushes | PRs | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| houtanb | 198 | 130 | 3 | 14 |
| zjac0bs | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| nikbpetrov | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| trashhalo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| jcanedy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| jmacd867 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| connachermurphy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NielsRogge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| coderabbitai[bot] | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Recent activity
Latest issues, pull requests and releases
- Issue comment#256jmacd8672026-07-23 15:01add logo for Vaticinus
- Issue comment#233coderabbitai[bot]2026-07-09 19:42fix: polymarket deprecated endpoint update
- Issue#8houtanb2026-05-29 13:21Data: Kalshi
- Issue comment#179nikbpetrov2026-05-16 10:10fix: rename `forecast_due_date` in `resolve()` signature and update related tests
- Issue#191houtanb2026-05-15 21:34website: fix spurious hover effect in explore graph legend
- Issue#191houtanb2026-05-15 21:34website: fix spurious hover effect in explore graph legend
- Issue#185houtanb2026-04-30 09:27Generate analysis dataset
- Issue#183houtanb2026-04-30 09:04Quantile questions
- Issue#172houtanb2026-04-17 12:12Reintroduce combo questions
- Issue#8houtanb2026-04-17 12:08Data: Kalshi
- Issue#135houtanb2026-03-29 16:33Handle edge cases (very few) where questions are marked as resloved but resolved_to is non 0/1
- Issue comment#160houtanb2026-02-23 10:57add local dev config for website
- Issue comment#160houtanb2026-02-23 07:24add local dev config for website
- Pull request#158houtanb2026-02-13 17:45
- Issue#155houtanb2025-11-18 22:04revert acled bug fix
- Issue#154houtanb2025-10-29 10:34Add comments of people who like FB, logos of submitting orgs
- Issue#153trashhalo2025-10-16 13:55release historic difficulty adjustments for reproducibility
- Issue comment#153trashhalo2025-10-16 13:55release historic difficulty adjustments for reproducibility
- Issue#103houtanb2025-10-08 10:31ACLED question bugs
- Issue comment#107houtanb2025-10-08 10:26Fix Metaculus question bank bug
- Issue#108houtanb2025-10-08 10:25Market questions check
- Issue comment#144houtanb2025-10-08 08:24Release nightly resolution updates before 100d cutoff
- Issue#144houtanb2025-10-08 08:24Release nightly resolution updates before 100d cutoff
- Issue#139houtanb2025-10-06 18:54rescale difficulty-adjusted Brier scores
- Issue#140houtanb2025-10-06 18:54x% equivalent forecaster
Totals cover only the window loaded into ClickHouse and count events, not GitHub's lifetime totals — 31 stars here means stars gained during the window, not the repo's star count.